獵豹財務長郭恭克部落格(JaguarCSIA)

◎蘇伊士運河沿岸景色
「Survival of the fittest in the 2008 ocean carrier jungle」

California’s Port of Long Beach - one of the key US ‘barometer’ ports - has reported a 13.8% drop in import container throughput for January 2008.On top of the steady decline of imports in Q4, 2007, the figures from Long Beach would seem to confirm the widely forecast predication of a significant downturn in the US economy.

However, many ocean carriers have already factored in a US downtown in their 2008 business plans by either terminating or pruning back their US services.The analysts’ jury is still out on the 2008 prospects for the lucrative key to ocean carriers’ business plans, the Asia – North Europe and Asia - Mediterranean tradelanes. The remarkable growth of 18% and 22% respectively, achieved in 2007 can surely not be repeated in a climate of sub-prime woes?

But the FEFC – albeit working its notice period – predicates ‘the same again’ in 2008. The soon to be defunct conference maintains that it has been proved right before dismissing the ‘doom-mongers’ who predict an ocean carrier Armageddon.In Europe the UK’s retail sales were slightly better than expected in January 2008, but its economy is so closely aligned to the US that, having caught the US sub-prime virus and credit crunch aftermath, it is unlikely to avoid a period of enforced belt tightening and consumer nervousness that will impinge upon demand.

But the 15 Euro currency countries from the 27 strong EU membership, plus the emerging countries from the old eastern block and other states linked to the strong Euro, may not necessarily suffer in the same way.FEFC statistics for January will be available shortly, but one month’s figures will not provide that many long-term indicators.

Indeed, February statistics may also be distorted due to the Chinese New Year holidays and the severe snow storm disruptions in China in the build up to the lunar festival.It is likely to be the end of Q1 2008 before budgets can be properly tested against actual performance; but even if the figures are depressed, ocean carriers are more resilient and adaptable to change in 2008 than hitherto.

The world’s number one ocean carrier, Maersk Line, is still taking its self-prescribed medicine and many ocean carriers seem willing to enter into slot-charter agreements with arch rivals to protect their bottom line.

Moreover, the decision in 2007 by ocean carriers to cut service speeds on many routes to reduce bunker costs, represents a significant step forward in responsible ship management.Co-operation between ocean carriers outside of normal alliances and radical cost-cutting measures prove that ego’s, brandings and service speeds are no longer important when compared to balance sheet performance!

Further consolidation of ocean carriers is still possible, evidenced by the apparent ongoing ‘discussions’ between Singapore-based NOL and German ocean carrier, Hapag Lloyd’s parent TUI.If the merged services can complement one another then it may make sense but as has been painfully learnt by A P Moller-Maersk: one+one does not always equal two in an acquisition of like.

Moreover, there is also a history of ocean carrier mergers leading to a period of heavy rate cutting, as the newly amalgamated organisation fights to maintain its combined market share; ultimately benefiting nobody!
(以上資訊節錄自CI-online 2008/2/18)


◎ 「庫倫洛夫」城鎮蜿蜒倘佯於伏爾塔瓦河上

內容重點有：
(一) 據資料指出，美國進出口量之指標性港口－位於加州之長堤港，其進口量的
       下降是否反映出美國經濟趨勢的下滑，仍需後幾個月數值才能予以說明，畢竟
       短期數值的變動，尚未能真正反映出中長期以上的預測與趨勢。
(二) 對於2008年貨櫃航運的前景，由前兩個月的樂觀至今越趨於保守；至於中國
       大陸的雪災對後幾個月的市場發展仍未顯現出來，不過此災害對於大陸的出口
       貨量仍會造成相當程度的衝擊，至於影響層面如何，目前尚未有其結果。
(三) 次級房貸在貨櫃航運的影響面，仍建立於歐洲對於貨量的需求幅度，及美國進
       口貨量需求是否依然是往下發展。
(四) 航商間聯營關係的加強與真正艙位的投入多寡，加上航商間對於緊守運費底限
       的態度與否，將是影響今年各航商獲利的主因之ㄧ。各航商對於經營航線的運
       力取捨，以及因應高油價所採的減速措施，仍是各航商的重要政策所在。
(五) 由貨櫃航運界的歷史可知，前一次的大型併購對於整個市場所造成的動盪，面
       對近來傳言紛擾之兩大航商併購案，各預言家對此皆持著不甚樂觀的態度。

結論：
       在前景未明的環境下，算命仙分析師們所發表的言論皆是老話重提，既不能將
之後的發展說的太悲觀，又不能根據現有的資訊來吹捧不甚樂觀的景象，故只好模
糊焦點，提些能自圓其說的言論，反正說錯了之後再依所得數值加以修正即可；世
人總是健忘，手邊所擁有的資訊總是落後市場的發展。
      『審慎以待』這詞用來解釋前景混沌不明的狀況，似乎其功效相當的強大，不
過根據本山人千年神龜解盤的結果得知，未來貨櫃航運榮景的發展，敬請大家審慎
以待吧。(豹大~~請別打偶呀.>_<.)